The ruble will fall and it is not a forecast, but a diagnosis

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The ruble on Wednesday tumbled against the dollar and Euro amid speculation about the introduction of new economic sanctions against Russia. Earlier, us senators have proposed a bill providing a new package of sanctions against Russia, including against the new debt of the Russian Federation and the state banks. Plus in the evening negative added falling more than 3.5% of oil and gone below 72 dollars per barrel of Brent. The collapse of oil, in particular, was provoked by release of inventories from the US Department of energy, which was much worse than analysts ‘ expectations.
Against this background, the dollar against the ruble has updated the highs from mid-November 2016, and the Euro since the beginning of may this year. As a result, the USD/RUB ended Wednesday, a decrease of 2.06 ruble – to of 65.55 ruble EUR/RUB 2.48 per ruble, to 76.13 of the ruble, according to data Libertex.
American indices closed the trades in different directions on the background of worsening relations because of the trade wars with China. Thus, the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC on August 23 simultaneously with the United States will impose duties on the second list of imported goods to $ 16 billion per year. They will be imposed on American coal, oil, chemicals, and some types of medical equipment. At the same time, 79% of the S&P 500 index announced surpassing profit forecasts for the second quarter.
This high percentage may be a record high since the first quarter of 1994 and supported by several U.S. benchmarks. In the end, the Dow Jones industrial average on Wednesday fell by 0.18% to 25583,75 points, the index of high-tech companies NASDAQ has raised on 0,06%, to 7888,33 points, the index of wide market S&P 500 symbolically fell by 0.03% to 2857,7 points, according Libertex.
In the morning, formed a moderately positive external background: futures for the American indexes grow moderately, the Asian markets are rising, oil is trying to move up and gain a foothold in the area of 72.5 per barrel. Futures on American indexes are mixed: the S&P 500 index rises by 0.06%, the NASDAQ is up 0.06%, the Dow Jones – 0.02%.
However, the sanctions issue will continue to put pressure on the ruble. After the strong achievements of local minima of the domestic currency may try to correct to the upside, but is unlikely to fully compensate for the loss. In our view, USD/RUB protorguetsya in between the range of 64.5-66.7 ruble. EUR/RUB is likely to potorgovat in the area 75-77,4 rubles.
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Ivan Marchena,
Analyst
GK Forex Club