The ruble will continue to fall, oil astupaet

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The Russian currency slightly weakened against the dollar and slightly increased in tandem with the Euro on Tuesday. The overall picture on the world markets, not conducive to the expression of interest in risky assets, is stopping the ruble to seize the initiative, especially given the recovery of the dollar this week and the downward trend in oil prices. Faced with the 20-day moving average in the area of 56,70 RUB, USD/RUB finished in the area of 56,50 RUB, up 0.2%.
After a wave of sales that has engulfed the world’s financial markets earlier this month, investors are still cautious, which prevents the growth of risky assets, including Russian currency. The dollar in these circumstances, demand strengthened in the international Forex market. Brent demonstrates the presence of uncertainty in the commodity segment, associated with the notorious concerns about further production growth in the shale deposits of the United States. Tax period, which peaks in the beginning of next week, and pending the revision of Russia’s rating agencies S&P and Fitch only partially negate the above negative factors, whose influence is now stronger than internal signals.
In the morning the trend of this week remains – oil continues to retreat, the dollar becomes more expensive, and in the stock markets buyers do not take the initiative. In such circumstances, the pair dollar/ruble may test the 20-DMA, which had limited the growth of quotations, and aim for the mark of 57 rubles. But the demand for ruble liquidity may prevent the breakdown of this level in the short term. Then everything will depend on the tone of the fed minutes, which will be published tonight, and from the reaction of the dollar on the release. More “aggressive” rhetoric of the regulator is able to support the recovery of the dollar and, consequently, increase pressure on the ruble.
Igor Kovalyov,
InstaForex companies group