The ruble will continue to fall against the dollar and the Euro started the day before
Tuesday, April 30, was by far the day the Euro and the dollar, but not the ruble. By the close of trading the last day of April the dollar exchange rate calculations “tomorrow” increased by 16 kopecks (+0,26%), to RUB 64,62, quite strongly and the Euro rose against the ruble to go up by 43 kopecks (+0,6%), to RUB 72,51 Before the long weekend, traders were shifted to the currency.
Yesterday in Russia and other countries of the world stock exchanges were closed in observance of the international day of labour (in Russia – “the Holiday of spring and labor”), however, world attention was riveted on the decision of the Federal reserve on interest rates. As predicted by market consensus, the fed left the interest rate unchanged in the range of 2.25-2.5 per cent.
In an accompanying commentary stressed that the U.S. economy is growing at a solid pace, unemployment remains low, and, moreover, stated that the fed intends not just to support and “nurture” (to foster) employment and price stability at the highest possible level. The fed’s Jerome Powell in a press conference said that he sees no compelling reason to change interest rates “in any direction”, thereby sending a signal to Donald Trump about what lower interest rates can also not be expected.
The timing of maintaining monetary policy unchanged, Powell spoke rather eloquently, saying that the interest rate will remain unchanged over a long period of time. The dollar index DXY on the statements of the fed reacted to the growth, although slight, so that the foreign exchange market, apparently, earlier it was expected that the American regulator will probably indicate any landmarks to reduce interest rates, but this did not happen. U.S. stock indexes on the news went down.
The price of Brent blend crude oil on ICE of 30 April rose by 0.2% and at the end of trading on may 1, has added 0,46%, rising to $71,92 a barrel. The price of oil appears to be influenced by the attempted coup in Venezuela, organized by the opposition, Guido with the active support of USA and their puppets in Latin America. But the putsch failed, the legally elected President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro remains in power. In the morning trading session the price of Brent crude falls 0.3%.
Today at the opening of the rouble can fall in price. We increased the forecasts: on the pair dollar/ruble to 64.3-65,2 RUB and EUR/RUB – to RUB 72-73
______________________ Natalia Milchakova,
Deputy Director of information-analytical center,