The ruble will accelerate the rate of decline to the end of the day
Despite the improvement of the external background, in the second half of day the Russian currency has accelerated the decline, sending the dollar to the area of 66,40 RUB stocks don’t feel improve way – index Mosberg konsolidiruyutsya in the flat and the RTS due to the weakening currency loses more than 0.5%. While European stocks cautious optimism prevails, but it looks very fragile in the light of high uncertainty in relations between the US and China.
The focus of the players continue to focus on developments around a trade dispute between the two largest economies in the world, none of which makes to yield. Investors are waiting for the resumption of negotiations, but have no illusions about significant breakthroughs, especially after the recently announced increase mutual duties. Before the advent of the latest news on that front, tensions in global markets will persist, and in such circumstances the Russian market can hardly afford to ignore and go into growth. In the best case, there will be a relatively stable picture.
As for the ruble, the fact that the currency falls during the growing oil, in the midst of the tax period and the extinction of demand for the dollar on the Forex market, speaks about the declining attractiveness of “Russians” after the entry into force of the new package of American sanctions and in anticipation of a rate cut by the Bank of Russia at the September meeting. From a technical point of view for the pair dollar/ruble is now open path to the mark of 67 rubles, and the appearance of any impressive negative signal from the outside of the quotes can go back to the February highs.
__________________ Arseniy Dadashev,
Academy of management Finance and investment