The ruble: Where global winds blow?
After the jump of the Renminbi on Monday, the volatility of the world markets gradually decreased, and the fluctuation of the Russian currency dropped significantly. Thursday in the afternoon, the ruble stabilized above 65 and EURRUB – above 73. Perhaps part of the bulls now celebrating a victory, noting that for the fourth time in 4 months increase purchases of the ruble from the levels and 65.50 73.50.
As analysts FxPro, the wind direction of global markets has changed. On Wednesday evening, the ruble had jumped to 65.70 and EURRUB up to 73.80, echoing the collapse of oil. Recall that in the first half of the ruble was not so sensitive to the weakening of Brent. In June, for example, 12% collapse of quotations of virtually moved the Russian currency from the scene, only launching additional easing.
To the extent that, as from the beginning of July reduced the surplus of the balance of payments, increasing the relationship between the oil price and the ruble. And that’s bad news in the current environment.
Oil officially entered a bear market, but even worse, the weakening caused by the fading prospects of world economic growth.
As an illustration, stands 4% th collapse of quotations the day before, which caused the decline of the ruble 1.2%. Black gold updates lows since the beginning of the year back three-quarters of the growth in the period from late December to late April. This despite the fact that the world’s Central Bank soften its policy in an attempt to support economic growth.
Moreover, there are growing expectations that the Bank of Russia in response to subdued domestic inflation will once again cut rates in September. Along with the nervousness of markets and the weakening of oil, it may be an additional factor of pressure on the ruble in the coming days and weeks.
In the end, the sellers of the ruble is one of the most significant chance to break through the support line, which bravely withstood the attacks of the previous months. In addition, this is a real chance to reverse the trend of the Russian currency until the end of the year.
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