The ruble was not afraid of US sanctions
This morning, investors were in a state of nervous overstimulation in a strange anticipation of a strong fall of the ruble due to yesterday’s brouhaha about the “new sanctions”, which is distributed on the market at irregular hours at the speed of sound. However, few bother to figure out what it was actually for sanctions. Somehow, by default, the market decided that it was just about those same sanctions that were supposed to start blocking dollar correspondent accounts to the Russian state banks and which were to impose a ban on foreigners buying Russian debt instruments.
In fact nothing of the above the Washington agenda did not appear. Yesterday it was enough just to read a one-page document, which was entitled “Text of a Letter from the President to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President of the Senate” (“the text of the letter President speaker of the house of representatives and the leader of the Senate”), which only meant that the US President takes responsibility for the creative work of developing further the sanctions policy against Russia and entirely transmits it to the relevant Committee of the Senate and of the U.S. Treasury. Then followed a list of certain persons, with no relation to the Russian banking system.
But a real primary factor in currency-ruble topics today, in fact, are the words Ksenia yudayeva, first Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia, which in yesterday’s interview to the correspondent of “Interfax” stated that the Central Bank intends to continue the pause in the purchase of foreign currency to mitigate the volatility of the ruble before the face of a new round of sanctions discussed in Washington. “The Central Bank rarely gives such strong pledges,” said Ms. Yudaeva. “but when we do it, we really mean it: if the press release says that we suspend purchases until the end of the year – this means that we do make a break until the end of the year.” Weight!
The result of a General revaluation of the importance of the sanctions factor and, consequently, underestimation of the regulatory this morning happened exactly what was supposed to happen – nothing. The dollar against the ruble on the Moscow stock exchange as of 12:30 Moscow time has remained virtually unchanged since yesterday’s close and is 66,28 rubles per dollar, compared to yesterday’s value 66,42 rubles per dollar at the same time. The Euro came close to the level of 78 rubles and trampled near 78,07/€ – although prolonged placement below this level we do not expect.
Again again, the ruble is very helpful to three factors: a) the correct position of the Ministry of Finance that with the emerging budget surplus for the third consecutive week cancels planned OFZ auctions in order to push the market and to maintain acceptable parameters of borrowing, forcing non-residents to be discounted, therefore, exaggerated their geopolitical risk; b) moreover, the Ministry of Finance currently does not need foreign currency and is not planning to buy until the end of the year; C) preserving the positive situation on the stock market which smelled of increased dividends amid rising profitability of Russian exporters due to high oil and a weak rouble.
“International financial center”