The ruble was another blow
Next turn the Russian currency to growth turned out to pairs USDRUB and EURRUB fiasco: they failed to pass key levels at 65.50 and 73.50 respectively.
In the second half of the day on Monday the ruble was another blow, following the dynamics of world markets, which sharply handed over positions amid bordering on panic moods.
Three percent collapse in key stock indices and a sharp reversal of oil to decline in the end of the day undermined the attempts of the ruble to find support. We will remind, the Russian currency has helped clarify the U.S. Treasury regarding the sanctions against the national debt of the Russian Federation, however, the collapse of the markets caused the ruble to sharply turn to decrease.
However, today the markets bounce off recent lows, decreasing pressure. As a result, USDRUB mid-day loses 35 cents, reaching 65.18. Coincidentally, the area 65.50 played for a dollar a turning point since April. If this decline will be sustainable, it could be the fourth in the last four months.
A similar picture is observed and EURRUB. The pair slowed down its growth after touching levels close to 73.50 for the same four months. So the recent breakthrough though was sharp (because they started from levels near 70), not yet beyond the established trading range.
For the development of rebound of the ruble, financial markets have again come to our senses and turn to growth. It is a possible scenario. Now from the beginning of the day futures for the American indexes grow by over 3% to intraday lows. Such reversals of the U.S. market in March and June ended with a strengthening of the RUB to 4.5%-5.0%.
But the priority, in our opinion, is still more extreme scenario, which assumes that the dollar and the Euro will be able to overcome the “impenetrable” semiannual resistance. Despite the rebound in financial markets main problems remain unresolved and escalating trade disputes – is only growing. In other words, a rollback of markets on Tuesday suggests the beginning of a long rebound, because it is not yet created by fundamental reasons such as resolution of trade conflicts and accelerate global growth.
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