The ruble turned his attention to the fed
It should be noted that yesterday’s decline in the dollar index DXY, which is the background of another unprincipled day on the US stock market, corrected from 94 to 93,66, was to be expected, and it mainly has led to some growth of the ruble to the dollar in the “counter-flow” to its General exchange rate trend. This growth today with the opening of the foreign exchange market has not been observed, although in the second half of the trading session the growth resumed on two factors.
First, the rise in oil prices in global markets came on a steeper trajectory and very close to the level of $82 per barrel on Brent.
Second, the Bank of Russia surprisingly well placed today its coupon bonds (COBRAS) in the total proportion of 26% from the declared volume one and a half trillion rubles at cut-off rates of less than 8%. I have the feeling that the unrealized market hungry for cancelled auctions OFZ spilled in the form of purchases of new instruments of the Central Bank. That is, the demand for ruble debt instruments other than phenomenal can not be named!
Correction of the American currency before important meetings of the Federal reserve – often repeated story. Investors as it “pulls the string”, so that subsequent leap on the announcement of the rate decision, the fed was more substantial, and large institutional traders who trade currency options could earn more. However, there is usually, too, has its “limits of decency”, and we are talking about changes in the range of ±3-3,5%, rarely more, that took place at yesterday’s auction.
Returning to the main event today and tomorrow, it is expected that the Federal open market Committee (FOMC) will adopt the increase in the key rate by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point), which will reach the target range of 2 to 2.25 %. The FOMC is likely to continue to adhere to the views of the three interest rates in 2019 and the same increase in 2020.
We expect that the average interest forecast Committee for 2021 will remain at the level of 3,375%, unchanged compared with the median forecast for 2020.
Meanwhile, the Russian ruble remains in “a pose of low start”, for all the aforementioned positives, in theory, can be suddenly confused if, for example, the fed will not increase rates by 25 and 50 b.p. (but such predictions among American analysts too!) As at 15:00 GMT the dollar traded at 65,65 rubles, and Euro – 77,34 (entrenched with morning 77,66 rubles per Euro), which is generally a good idea, but nothing specific in terms of medium-term trends does not show.
“International financial center”