The ruble took a breather after rapid growth

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Tuesday, April 9, for the ruble has become a day of respite after rapid growth the day before. The dollar and the Euro strengthened against the ruble, but very slightly, in fact, both currencies stood on the site. To close on Tuesday the dollar exchange rate calculations “tomorrow” increased by only 4 kopecks (+0,07%), to 64,92 Euro grew slightly more, by 5 kopecks (+0,075%) to RUB 73,45
On April 9, the London stock exchange ICE Brent crude has fallen in price on 0,5% to $70,45 per barrel. Probably, the price pressure has had a statement of the Minister of energy Alexander Novak, suggested that in the 2nd half of this year, the extension of the deal “OPEC+” may not be necessary if the oil market in the 2nd half of the year will be “predicted balanced”. However, this move down could be just a correction after the strong price rise above $70 per barrel. In the morning, the Brent price is again lowered, but still very weak.
The Ministry of economic development published the forecast at the average exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar by 2019, which, according to the Ministry, will amount to 65.1 rubles per dollar. The Ministry believes that the weakening of the ruble may impact the possible reduction in oil prices, as well as the intervention of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank in the foreign exchange market and monetary policy in Russia. Forecast largely contributed to the weakening of the ruble than strengthen it.
We believe that today, at the opening of trading the ruble will decline to the world’s reserve currencies. A pair dollar/ruble, we have increased the forecast to 64.7-65.5 rubles, and Euro/ruble – to 73-74 RUB.
_______________________ Natalia Milchakova,
Deputy Director of information-analytical center,
Alpari