The ruble today will take a defensive position

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The recovery of demand for risks helped on Tuesday the Dow and S&P500 to reach highs in March. Against this background, the Russian ruble is in high demand. In addition, the Russian currency was helped by strong data on balance of payments, reflecting the slowdown in import growth. In the result, the USD / RUB pair fell 75 cents to 61.74, but EURRUB has decreased by 89 cents to 72.56 a month minimum.
However, the start of trading environment runs the risk to put the ruble in a defensive position. States repeated the threat to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods worth $200 billion, which sent the Asian markets and the yuan downward.
For the Russian market is also important weakening of the oil in the morning. Yesterday, Brent crude oil exceeded $79, but today morning quotes fell by 2% to $77.50.
Markets have learned that threats of tariff-not an empty sound, so with great attention to listen to new threats.
Short-term ruble may also decrease due to lock in profits after a strong movement yesterday. Moreover, the weakening is consistent with the prevailing at the beginning of the day sentiments for a reduction in markets and currencies of commodity countries and developing countries. Mark 62 and 73 to the dollar and the Euro, respectively, can become the new center of attraction for players in the Russian currency market.
Craving for technical fixing of profit can become a leitmotif of the day as well with Russian equities. Yesterday, the index Mosberg rewrote record highs and turned lower, and the scale of this movement may well increase with such a careful tone of trading foreign stocks.
Alexander Kuptsikevich,
Financial analyst,