The ruble to the end of the week has lost confidence in growth

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The ruble to the end of the week lost confidence under the influence of negative dynamics in the markets of developing countries. The Russian currency was under pressure from global capital flows that came into the movement due to the revision of investors ‘ attitudes toward risk. Sale OFZ before the long weekend not add a positive.
The situation with oil prices is also mixed. On the one hand, the “black gold” may maintain information about the production cuts in Venezuela. On the other hand, players are concerned about the weakening demand for raw materials in China and increased production in the United States to 10.8 million barrels per day. Besides, the oil reserves in the United States, contrary to predictions, increased by 2.1 million barrels for the week, reaching a volume of 436.5 million barrels.
Noteworthy, the activity of the Ministry of Finance, which counts for a month to buy the currency in the amount of nearly 380 billion rubles. The intervention will be a record since the introduction of the new budgetary rules and can speed up the ruble’s retreat from the positions reached at the end of may – early June.
Expected trading range for the coming week is 61,90 – 63,90 RUB/USD.
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Vladimir Zotov
Head of Directorate of financial markets
UBRD