The ruble: the Recovery will not be easy

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After a morning of attempted weakening of the ruble took the initiative and went on the offensive, significantly speeding up the rise towards the end of the session environment. At the end of trading the dollar lost 1%, to RUB the area of 61,50 Euro slid 1.3 percent, falling below the mark of 73 rubles. for the first time since April 9. In the latter case, there is the effect of the widespread weakening of the single currency, which has updated the lows of this year in tandem with the dollar.
In fact, no meaningful catalysts for the surge in purchases of the ruble was not observed. Except that speculators decided to buy depreciating currency and used the new spurt in prices of oil up. Brent, which in the first half of the day was submitted corrective signals back above $ 79 on inventory reduction in the United States according to the energy Ministry. Partly could be the result of the tax period, although this month, its impact will largely neutralized by the intervention of the Ministry of Finance with record volumes.
The fundamental picture has not changed – the ruble remains weak and susceptible to risks, including sanctions. The yield on us treasuries continues to grow, and in these circumstances, the currency of an emerging segment is unlikely to show a sustained recovery, although on the eve of EM assets was feeling quite cheerful.
In the short term, our currency can undertake new attempts of growth, especially in tandem with the Euro, but towards the end of the week the chances of a deeper recovery will be less, unless, of course, oil does not explode above $ 80 per barrel. In this case, despite the latest black gold, the ruble will not be able to remain indifferent. The closest downward target of the pair dollar/ruble is at around 61,30 RUB, which blocks the way to 61 rubles.
Igor Kovalyov,
InstaForex companies group