The ruble: the Recovery looks fragile

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On Thursday, the ruble moved to a recovery against foreign currencies, marking the first full trading day partial correction after recent sales. The dollar, which informed for the first time since April 11 touched highs above $ 64 rubles., fell by 1.5% and settled near 63 RUB EUR/RUB fell more modestly, by just over 1%, to RUB 75,50
The main catalyst for the change the vector of movement was the weakening of the American currency in the international arena. Profit provoked uncertainty of the outcome of the fed meeting – traders crept concerns that the regulator may suspend a hike in rates when inflation reaches the 2% target level. Fundamentally, however, the dollar remains attractive, including by improving economic statistics. So, in the medium term the ruble is likely to remain in a defensive position, especially in the question of relations with the West remains uncertain.
With the oil market support comes. Brent is unable to determine the precise motion vector due to conflicting signals. The market is still supported by expectations of sanctions against Iran, while the further growth of reserves and production of hydrocarbons in the United States is holding back buyers.
Today adjustments in the dynamics of the pair dollar/ruble can enter data on the US labor market. Maintaining a decent pace of employment growth and the increase in wages is able to restore the interest to buy dollar across the entire spectrum of the market. In this case, the EUR / USD pair may target in the direction of 63,70 RUB.
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Igor Kovalyov,
Analyst
InstaForex companies group