The ruble: the downside Risk is there, but it all depends on the dollar

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After yesterday’s “the rehearsal”, on Tuesday morning, the ruble with fresh forces rushed to new heights, hitting a new high this year, and at the same time high mid-2015. After an aggressive shopping at the start of trading the currency gradually recedes under partial profit at attractive levels.
The current strength of the ruble is a combination of several factors. “Russian” continues to play receive a second investment grade rating, which could encourage more foreign investors are more willing to buy ruble assets and, accordingly, increase the attractiveness of the national currency.
Some support has and the dollar, which fell silent in anticipation of the speech of the new head of the Federal reserve, which, however, may introduce volatility in dollar pairs, including USD/RUB.
Meanwhile the tax period in Russia ends tomorrow the payment of income tax, after which the ruble is traditionally more vulnerable to interventions of the Ministry of Finance. Also pay attention to the dynamics of oil, which is expensive, but feels insecure because of the notorious activity of the shale producers in the USA. This factor will continue to hold the bulls on commodities and may be subject to correction, if fresh statistics from the United States to reflect the increase in reserves and production of crude oil.
Given the departure from the scene of the tax period and the risk of a rollback in oil prices, and current high position of the ruble in the near future may be brewing risk of a downside correction. Preserving and increasing these positions will be possible if the dollar falls under sales, disappointed in the rhetoric of Powell’s.
Roman Blinov,
The expert of the company,
“International financial center”