The ruble: the Central Bank of the Russian Federation returns to currency market
The Bank of Russia plans to resume purchases of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance in the budgetary rules after the Christmas holidays, from January 15, 2019. This was during a forum “Russia calling”, said the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina.
In principle, it is, of course, support the dollar and the ruble is weaker. Our monetary authorities do not hide that have a policy of the weak ruble: it is in the interests of exporters and budget. Actually, I do not see much sense to build up international reserves, which now amount to about $460 billion and roughly equal to external debt. If the West dares to freeze, Russia may respond with a moratorium on foreign debt payments.
However, the question remains, what will happen in January, the price of oil. Maybe an unscheduled oil revenues will not. If OPEC+ will not reduce quotas by 1-2 million barrels a day, I think black gold will be much cheaper than now. I am guided by a corridor at a cost of Brent crude oil in the range of $40-50 per barrel. The reasons for this are many – the actions of the Saudis and the American oil shale and, of course, the growth rate of FRS of USA, and an expensive dollar.
The Director of analytical Department,