The ruble survived the fed minutes

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Wednesday, 21 August, the ruble has demonstrated a positive trend against foreign currencies. It is noticeably krepilsya due to the growing prices for oil at the auctions in Europe, increasing risk appetite, as well as tax period and the high demand for OFZ. The pair dollar/ruble fell by 1.22% to 65,75 RUB, EUR/RUB – on 1,27%, to 72 and 92 RUB, GBP/RUB – on 1,53%, to RUB 79,72
In the European trading, the price of Brent increased to $61,40 per barrel. Buyers part of the profits lost in the U.S. session after the release of the report of the US Department of energy. Oil stocks declined less than the market expected.
For the week ended 16 August, they fell by 2.73 million barrels per day (the forecast was minus 3.1 million barrels). Gasoline inventories increased by 312 thousand barrels (consensus: minus 1.6 million barrels), distillate – by 2.61 million barrels per day (the forecast was minus 200 million). Oil production remained at the level of 12.3 million barrels per day.
The RGBI index increased 0.38 percent, to 143,76. The Finance Ministry successfully placed OFZ in amount of RUB 26.1 billion with a total demand for paper in the amount of 66,29 billion rubles FOMC minutes had no significant effect on the national currency. The fed is still dependent on economic data and according to experts, the regulator once again will reduce the interest rate in 2019.
Thursday, August 22, a barrel of Brent fell by 0.1%. The price is adjusted after 4 days of growth and risks remain re-drop to $60,24. If the low of yesterday $60,03 will not stand, customers who bought oil futures as of 15 August, can start to exit their long positions, which will increase the downward movement.
The pair dollar/ruble returned to the level 65,75 RUB that is slightly more than 50% of the rise from 64,76 to 67,10 RUB In the morning session of Mosuri the dollar is falling against the ruble by 0.35%, and the Euro is reduced by 02,3%.If today is the day will pass quietly, we can expect the return rate to 64,85 RUB.
The focus of market participants are now annual Symposium of the Federal reserve (22-24 August) and the G7 summit this weekend.
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Vladislav Antonov,
Analyst
“Information-analytical center “Alpari”