The ruble strengthened too fast, the Russian market never ceases to amaze

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The ruble strengthened too fast, and the index of Mosuri against this background, one cannot remain at historic highs. On Wednesday, the Russian stock market hitting new record peaks – the rouble indicator has gone up to 2416 points, but later the enthusiasm of customers subsided somewhat. Now the most interesting question is how long will stock these “trees” reach for the heavens and for how long will ripen correction. In fact, time for a rapid purchase, not so much on September 24, the U.S. introduced a new duty for China China is preparing to respond to trade aggression, and 26 September, the US Federal reserve will raise interest rates. Partly all these expectations is already in the stock prices, but market emotion also has not been canceled.
Estimates of “Alpari-Broker”, index Mosberg may continue to grow, while external background remains neutral, and 2420 points, and higher – borders here. The nearest support is around 2380 points, under it – 2365 points. The RTS index also has increased quite a bit lately, here taken as the goal of ascent to 1120 points. The indicator now stands above, in the area of 1130 points, it is not excluded a small increase and then rolled back down to 1100 points.
Shares of “Uralkali” today was among the leaders of the exchange’s demand. On the one hand, the paper pushes up the Russian unbridled optimism, on the other – internal news. At the meeting of the intergovernmental Commission with the participation of Russia and India “BRIC” raised the issue of the lifting of import duties on the products of the company. Also discussed were options regarding the launch of the project for the production of fertilizers in India. Those are the positive things for stocks, “BRIC”, the purpose of lifting – 100 RUB.
The shares of “Aeroflot” also continues the rise, but more modestly. Stocks clearly are drawn to 115 RUB, the area previous local “sideways”.
The Russian ruble has recovered well after the August and September stress shocks completely covered the failure of the last four weeks and looks to be stable in pairs with other foreign currencies. The U.S. dollar may stabilize in the range 66,50-67,50 RUB in the near future, but, as has been said, any change in the external environment will make ruble pair to return to the more comfortable and logical values. In addition, investors are ignoring a growing geopolitical risk in the Syrian issue, but it is temporary. The dollar closed today’s trading in the range 66,70-67,15, the Euro finishes within 77,705-78,35 RUB.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari