The ruble strengthened on a sharp rise in price of oil
The ruble strengthened today on the sharp increase in oil prices coming close to $76,50 for Brent. The reason for this is the threats from the White House to address “those who in defiance of sanctions to carry out oil trades with Iran.” Ie in fact, the US are talking about the resumption of the regime imposed an oil embargo against the Islamic Republic. Iran shares with Mexico 6-7 place in terms of oil production in the world, and under no circumstances can not be ignored oil analysts. As a consequence, we can state the fact that oil has grown absolutely natural and predictable.
However, we can not worry about the dependence of the ruble on oil prices observed since mid-April. If for the past day, oil has appreciated by 1.8%, the ruble grew by only 0.4% to 63,28 rubles per dollar. Analysts ‘ expectations, which in this case is just a “time lag” and the ruble will soon catch up the backlog are often not implemented, leaving supporters of such a theory in loss.
Accordingly, if this negative trend continues, this will make extremely difficult the accurate prediction of the movement of the Russian currency in the future. If you take a constant current level of the key interdependencies – oil, geopolitics, liquidity in the banking system, the ratio of dollar deposits to ruble, the level of tax burden of corporations and individuals, etc., then, in General, the lag of the ruble from the dynamics of oil seems to continue (especially if for some reason the meeting of the presidents of Russia and the USA, scheduled for July 15, will not take place or will be postponed).
For this reason, although we have a bullish scenario on oil, as for the ruble, the level 62 p. dollar acts as a very stiff resistance to the further strengthening of the “wood” in the medium term.
As for the Euro, there is also a set of bipolar factors. On the one hand, in the Eurozone, the ECB continues the policy of quantitative easing, weakening the Euro against the growing hard the fed’s policy of dollar. But, at the same time, the graphs we see no strong trends in the single European currency, since the beginning of may this year.
Why? The Euro, although officially considered to be independent of the exchange currency, but in reality such is not entirely because of its connection with the “big brother” (USD) through the Euro-dollar swaps, which in recent months has greatly increased. The reason is twofold. On the one hand, the fed is disadvantageous to the strong depreciation of the main competing currency, as this will lead to a further worsening of foreign trade position of American manufacturers, which categorically does not want Donald trump. On the other hand, the strengthening of the Euro is not because economic and political (new issues in Italy and Spain, reminding 2010-2011)
The expert of the company,
“International financial center”