The ruble strengthened carefully
The ruble gained 19 cents on Monday against the Euro to 70.69 where stabilized in early trading on Tuesday. The pair dollar/ruble to the middle of the day near 63.46, little changed since the beginning of the week. Buyers of the ruble managed to return the pair below 63.50.
All the attention of the foreign exchange market, it seems, flowed in the direction of the British pound. With the exception of its two-percent drop since the beginning of the week, fluctuations in major currency exchange rates seem to be very careful. Market participants take a wait and see position, preferring to wait for further signals from the fed and the US economy, and possible outcomes of trade negotiations. The current lull also allows investors to consolidate the efforts that upon receipt of a clear signal may further strengthen the market reaction.
Among the external factors it is necessary to highlight the strengthening of the oil. It increased by 1.5% over the past day. The fact that the ruble is for the most part ignored this growth, suggests a probable shift in investor sentiment.
While in the spring, we saw the strengthening of the ruble even with a decrease in oil, but now the situation has turned 180 degrees.
However, other commodity currencies are also slowly slipping down in recent days, despite the relatively positive dynamics in the materials, and lose significantly more than the Russian currency. On July 19, Australian and new Zealand dollars have lost more than 2.5%, Canada 1.1%, against 0.5%, which gave a ruble to the dollar during the same period.
Probably one of the reasons that buyers are in no hurry to get out of ruble positions, is the high interest rates that provide an impressive yield under high rates fiscal sustainability.
However, practice shows that the ruble in the short term can be left out of the movement of the world markets, ignoring the outflow of investors from the commodity currencies. The highest stakes handicap ruble to investors reduced positions in the beginning of a reversal in the markets. However, this still does not guarantee bulletproof protection.
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