The ruble started the week falling despite increase of a rating of the Russian Federation

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On Monday, the ruble opened a small gap down, but soon it was closed, sitting above the 200-day moving average. Quotes are close to the intermediate resistance of 65.50 RUB, showing low activity. Restrains downward pressure on the ruble, the lack of pronounced demand for the dollar on the Forex market.
While our currency hardly reacted to the decision by Fitch to improve the credit rating of Russia from BBB – to BBB with a stable Outlook. However, in the future this would push the two other leading agencies in the face of Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s to revise the rating of our country also upward, which will increase the attractiveness of domestic assets in General.
From the oil market, the ruble meaningful support is not received. Brent is experiencing difficulties with growth amid fears of lower global demand, especially after the IEA lowered its forecast for energy demand in 2019 and 2020 as prices remain under the mark of 60 dollars per barrel and do not take the confident attempts further recovery. Moreover, the market is still prevailing downside risks, notably from the trade war between the US and China.
In the short term, the dollar/ruble is likely to be oscillating around the level of 65.50 RUB, but in the case of a new round of sales on the market of black gold and the resumption of the flight from risk would threaten the recent high level of 65.62 RUB.
Gennady Nikolaev
Academy of management Finance and investment