The ruble resists external pressure

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In spite of the predominantly negative dynamics in the stock markets, including Russian, as well as the lack of clear signals from the oil market, the ruble continues to climb on Tuesday.
The pair dollar/ruble has updated almost 1-year lows marked 62,50 RUB and trying to bounce. The lack of interest in risky assets does not prevent our currency to overcome new obstacles, but as the conquest of the peaks of the potential for further growth is gradually being exhausted.
With the end of the week effect from the tax period will come to naught, and the ruble will become harder to ignore negativity, especially in conditions of overbought. The situation in the oil market has improved slightly due to geopolitics, but it remains unstable, and if the tension between USA and Iran may follow a rather deep downward correction, the ruble, given the current high levels, are unlikely to leave without attention.
The broader picture shows that much of the current rally “Russians” obliged the widespread sales of the dollar. But after a pretty serious drawdown, resigned to the prospect of rate cuts by the Federal reserve, the American currency can go to at least a technical correction. And in the case of progress in the negotiations, the US and China the dollar will be the stimulus to growth, since this script will automatically reduce the threat of a resumption of policy easing in the United States.
Gennady Nikolaev
Academy of management Finance and investment