The ruble reserved reacts on the external background

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The Russian ruble is very confidently held the auction on Monday. The pair USDRUB, despite the weak start of trading was able to decline at the end of the day at 66 cents (-1.1%) to 61.60. In cents, the Euro has lost the same amount, a decrease of 0.9% to 72.61.
It should be noted that EURRUB illustrates the decline following the weakening of the single currency on the global market, and already 80% played splash on the announcement of sanctions from April 6. For further perspectives of the Euro will be important to the behavior of a currency pair near the level of 72. Previously it was reliable resistance, which may now be the strong support preventing the ruble to continue its growth against the Euro.
For comparison, the dollar regained only half is taken from the ruble during the rally 6-11 April, and now, almost two weeks USDRUB marking around 62. A couple balances the growth of oil and pressure on the currencies of developing countries such as Argentine and Mexican pesos, and Turkish Lira.
Among the important drivers for the markets yesterday, it’s worth noting the news that the US and China “put on pause a trade war”. These reports provided limited support for demand risks in global markets. A noticeable effect was in the U.S. and China. In addition, morning rise sites of Australia in addition to the growth AUD to month high. All this hope that global trade will continue to gain momentum and increase the demand for raw materials and energy. These conditions also were favorable for the oil, which managed to overcome the negative start to the week. The result is Brent is trading around 79.40 per barrel is about the maximum levels of closing of the last days.
In General investors in the Russian currency should remain cautious. In 2008 and 2014 has had a similar situation when oil grew against the deteriorating prospects of the emerging economies. This allowed the Russian currency to enjoy the demand for a temporary “disconnect” from the global trend. However very soon (in the fall / winter) ruble fell at a faster pace, ultimately no different from that of the group of currencies of developing countries.
Alexander Kuptsikevich,
Financial analyst,