The ruble remains popular with investors and it’s weird

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On Friday, November 2, at the end of the trading session on the Moscow exchange rate of the us dollar calculations “tomorrow” increased by 48 kopecks (+0,73%) to 66,20 Euro – 47 kopecks (+0,63%), to RUB 75,43
On the last day of the week trading in the Russian currency ended in negative territory against foreign currencies. Its weakening is due to several factors: the positive statistics from the US labor market, the strengthening of the dollar throughout the market, the fall in oil prices and a long weekend in Russia.
The price of Brent crude decreased to $72,15. Last Thursday and Friday, November 1 and 2, the collapse of oil was triggered by a larger than expected increase in OPEC production, and with the exception of some countries from the sanctions list prohibiting the import of Iranian oil. An exception was made for South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Greece, Japan, China, India and Italy. The U.S. expects those countries reduce purchases of oil from Iran.
Monday, November 5, entered into force on sanctions against Iran. Currency trading on the Moscow exchange on this day was not held due to the holiday. The price of oil increased to $74,10 per barrel. In the spot market the dollar decreased to RUB 65,95 Current rate is 66,08 RUB per US dollar. The ruble has partially recovered the losses.
A barrel of Brent is $72,89 (+0,35%). The reaction of the ruble to the decline in oil prices was weak, so it can rapidly respond to their growth. Oil prices sagged seriously in October, and the ruble rose. If oil prices go up, the ruble will not weaken.
Today, it is important to look back the dollar to the level 66 RUB or not. On global market the dollar on Monday, weakened. Oil is trading in positive territory. On the futures market the major players (entities) are holding long positions on the ruble, and roll over. On Friday, the short positions in dollar rose by 12.18% to 1.3 million contracts (1 lot = $1000, keep the shorts 131). If they are not record profits, it means something you know.
These are professional players and they are in the minority. It should not be ignored because the crowd is wrong in most cases. The crowd is holding long positions in the dollar volume of 1.4 million contracts (10663). Note the number of persons holding these contracts and the difference between them.
If you start from technical and cyclical analysis of the market, the ruble has already entered a phase of weakening. The question is: how long time it will take to start? How to be? Wait for outcome of the elections in the U.S. Congress. If the dollar falls below 66 rubles, then the flat will be delayed for some time. The Euro/ruble also “charged” and is ready to rally to 77 rubles.
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Vladislav Antonov,
Analyst
Alpari