The ruble recovered after a massive drop the day before

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The Russian currency continued gradual strengthening in trading on Monday. In the end two days the ruble won back all the losses suffered on Thursday, when all risky assets overwhelmed by a powerful wave of sales. The pair dollar/ruble to the end of the session settled in the area of 64.35 RUB, having lost 0,05%, and the Euro/ruble sank on 0,14% – to the level of 72 rubles.
The ruble continues to demonstrate stability and resistance to external stimuli in the form of unstable oil prices, the periodic surge of demand for the dollar and the flight from risk. To a large extent the vitality of our currency gives the tax period, which, however, soon coming to an end. Also the impact of waiting to start a cycle of reducing interest rates by the Bank of Russia.
With respect to the global factor trade confrontation between the US and China, which have escalated in recent weeks, while on world markets there is no panic on this occasion, the ruble also will react quite restrained. In the short term, in addition to the peak of tax payments and the potential continuation of the recovery in oil prices, “Russian” can support the next auctions of the Ministry of Finance, which may again reflect the high demand for OFZ bonds, including from non-residents. From a technical point of view, the focus is now the support area of 64.30 RUB – testing it is theoretically clear the way to level 64 RUB
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Gennady Nikolaev
Expert
Academy of management Finance and investment