The ruble rebounded, but demand for the dollar perked up

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On Tuesday, the ruble rebounded, although by the end of the session the demand for the dollar perked up, and the overall picture is somewhat blurred. Today our currency is trying to continue an upward correction after the large drawdown in the beginning of the month. The focus remains the mark of 65 rubles, which is “American” continues to be tested.
The overall reduction of fears associated with the new package of sanctions, contributes to the weakening pressure on the ruble, and reinforces this trend is the unstable position of the dollar because of the escalating trade war that threatens more aggressive easing by the fed. But this is not enough to bring the Russian currency to grow, particularly given the tense atmosphere in the global markets, where investors fear a further escalation of trade relations between the US and China and the beginning of the currency wars after the recent devaluation of the Renminbi.
Moreover, the price of oil traded at the lows of the beginning of the year. While the ruble is trying not to react to the drawdown of quotations, but more large-scale fall in Brent will not go unnoticed. And the preconditions for a new wave of sales in the raw materials segment is present. In the context of a trade war possible implementation risk, in which China, in protest, violate the U.S. sanctions against Iran and will continue to buy oil from middle Eastern countries. By the way, already now there are reports that Chinese tankers carrying Iranian oil.
So, if in the short term, our currency looks relatively good, in the medium term will not be failures, and with the passage of the mark 65,40 RUB on a combination of flight from risks and reduce the cost of oil.
Gennady Nikolaev
Academy of management Finance and investment