The ruble pared losses against the U.S. dollar, reaching two-week highs

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This week has been very fruitful for the ruble – the currency pared losses from the previous five days trading incurred by the fault of the mass flight from risk and the accompanying strengthening of the dollar. The Russian currency reached two-week highs today somewhat tempered the ardor, trying to determine further movement direction.
Pressure on the dollar, which severely manifested in the Asian session, a little weak, locally limiting the growth potential of the ruble. In the oil market, too, there has been a slowdown in the climb after strong technical rebound, supported by positive statements of the Saudis, the dollar sales and the stabilization of risk-weighted assets. Concerns buyers is clear – tonight will be the famous fresh statistics on drilling rigs in the US last week.
Recall that the previous report indicated a sharp increase in the number of active installations. However, this time we will likely see a slowdown in activity on this front that is able to maintain quotations at the close of trading. This factor, our currency will play already at the opening on Monday, unless, of course, the stats will deserve the reaction of the oil market.
Pay attention to other factors that play into the hand of the ruble. It started yesterday the tax period and the accompanying traditional increased domestic demand for ruble liquidity. This is the continuing investors ‘ interest in OFZ bonds – this week in the auction of the Ministry of Finance, the demand exceeded the offer three times. It’s the return of buyers in the segment of risky assets to the detriment of the dollar, which serves a double dose of positive for “Russians”.
In the short term the main reference point for the ruble is the dollar, which will be able to win back some losses on the international Forex market, if today’s data on construction sector will not disappoint, as did producer prices on Thursday and retail sales on Wednesday. So, before the end of the trading week is not expected significant breakthroughs up to the ruble, especially on the further way up is an important technical level of 56 to the dollar, which can act as a support to the American currency.
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Roman Blinov,
Company expert,
“International financial centre”