The ruble over the last week weakened considerably against the dollar and the Euro
On the one hand, the strengthening of the USD/RUB has contributed to the overall constructive spirit of the foreign exchange market against the us dollar which managed to grow against a basket of currencies the past five days. The U.S. currency looked a winner on expectations start today a meeting of the Federal reserve – the foreign exchange market since the middle of last week began to tune in to most of the expected rate hike by the Federal open market Committee.
It should be noted that the expectations of the investment community regarding the March meeting quite unique – appreciate players in the futures market probability of interest rate hikes by the Fed as of Monday closure of accounts for 94.4% (according to the tool from CME Group FedWatch).
We note that in recent months officials of the fed have given more than enough signals of at least 3 steps of monetary tightening in the current year. The fed traditionally tries to arrange surprises the markets and this time is unlikely to depart from this tradition – the new head of the fed Jerome Powell, apparently, will celebrate its first meeting at the helm of the Central Bank monetary tightening.
But even more important than predictable interest rate hike will be the rhetoric of Powell and his answers to questions during press conference- the investment community will try to catch the mood of the fed for the current year on the subject of “hawk” signals. If any of the dollar is quite able to go on the offensive, including against the ruble.
March 23 will be a meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which is a great possibility of lowering the key rate by 0.25% to 7.25%. At the same time, at the end of the week to limit the scale of the losses of the ruble may need in the Russian currency for tax payments. Anyway, the most important factor influencing the pair USD/RUB in the current week promises to be still fed meeting.
From a technical point of view, the pair is moving in a long term sideways pattern, while the picture on the daily chart indicates the pause in the local strengthening in the short term.
Source – Thomson Reuters
Pair since last summer and forms consolidation movement, restricted to the top level of 72, and given the proximity of the course to her in the short term, allowed the rollback.
Source – Thomson Reuters
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