The ruble may weaken because of the activity of the Ministry of Finance

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Friday, may 10, in almost all Russia, was a day off, but financial markets continued to work. By the close of trading Friday, the U.S. dollar calculations “tomorrow” has grown very little, only 5 kopecks (+0,08%), to RUB 65,12, and the Euro has grown considerably more, by 28 kopecks (+0,39%), to RUB 73,14
With world markets come disturbing news. Donald trump is adamant in his intentions to raise tariffs on Chinese products, accusing the failure of the negotiations China, which is not pleasing to world markets, especially the currency markets of developing countries. While in Russia was a holiday weekend, some U.S. media published the news that the US intends to include Russia in the list of countries manipulating its own currency. Although inclusion in such a list for a specific country is not a serious economic, legal and policy implications (China and India have long been present in this list), it may cause the depreciation of the national currency against the dollar and other world currencies.
So who really is manipulating the exchange rates of other countries, does not the United States? More negative news for the ruble could become the information that the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank in the period from 14 may to 6 June will start daily to buy on the open market currency by 16.7 billion rubles instead of the previous purchase amount to 11.6 billion RUB in day. Not just currency traders, but also among the population in connection with the expected fall of the ruble may increase the demand for dollars and euros.
The price of Brent crude oil in London on Friday rose 0.6% to $70,23 per barrel, returning to the level above $70, after falling in the middle of last week to nearly $69 per barrel, which is likely due to the reduction in the supply of oil due to tightening anti-Iranian embargo. In the morning the price of Brent continues to increase, rising in price on 0,26%.
The ruble at the opening can show multidirectional dynamics. We store the forecast: for pair dollar/ruble in 65-66 RUB and EUR/RUB forecast to increase to 73-74 RUB.
Natalia Milchakova,
Deputy head of information-analytical center,