The ruble may weaken as the dollar and the Euro

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On Friday the markets dominated by a cautious tone. Shares in Asia lost about 1%, while futures on the S&P500 to date, losing 0.5% to Friday’s closing level. The main reason for this is the increasing concern of investors is the fed policy. The markets do not doubt that next week the FOMC will raise rates by 0.25 percentage points. However, the strong labor market data last Friday and the confirmation from the other indicators this week caused serious apprehension.
The shares pressured expectations that the fed will increase the number of supporters 4 increases in rates this year. Against the background of rising interest rates on riskless securities, equities will look less attractive, will also increase fees on margin positions. In connection with this promotion are carefully decrease and the dollar gets a little lost in the beginning of the month.
Concerns over a high rate of rate hikes from the fed are always very sensitive to emerging markets. Current Friday was no exception, marking the most significant pressure on the currencies of developing countries. Among the most popular is worth noting the decline in the Turkish Lira 0.9%, updating the lows from February 2017 the Mexican peso.
The rouble since morning lost 37 cents to the dollar after falling by 66 cents the previous day and is trading at the time of writing, about 62.75. It is also clear that the USD / RUB pair has experienced in the previous days serious difficulties with the fall below 62 per dollar, and very quickly found the reason for growth against the background of global trends. It is likely that the pair will not meet serious resistance on their way until the field of 64, where in may and April was the turn down.
The movement of the Euro up may be longer. The single currency recovered after a decline in April-may, and she is able to return to the area 76, against the current of the marks in close proximity to 74. In more favorable for the Euro case, we can not exclude also growth to 78, as the position of the ECB in the coming Thursday may be more hawkish than previously after strong inflation data.
Alexander Kuptsikevich,
Financial analyst,