The ruble may suffer from the trade war the US and China
The wave of selling on global stock markets, including sites in the US and China, coupled with increased demand for us and Japanese government bonds, to form a negative backdrop for the ruble at the start of trading on Tuesday. However, the Russian currency so far managed not to panic. So, start trading on USDRUB 65.37, after the ruble COP. 6 to close Monday, following which the pair grew by 36 kopecks EURRUB opened at 73.41, a decrease of 4 COP, after yesterday’s growth on 31 kopecks.
On Monday, the markets like the sword of Damocles hanging news about the escalation of trade disputes the United States and China, which is quite sensitive S&P500 and Dow Jones: the key indices managed to lose more than 2.4% during the American session. At the moment, they are retreated from six-week lows, but this move is more like a local short-term rebound than a full turn to growth. Realizing this, investors flocked to traditional “safe Harbor” that are actively buying gold, U.S. government bonds, the yen and the Swiss franc.
Under these conditions, the oil failed to maintain the momentum on the rise, which originated in the beginning of the week, falling yesterday to the end of the day by 4% from $72 per barrel. Now it is trading at around 69.90. It should be noted that from the technical analysis Brent recently received support on dips to the 50 – and 200-day moving average, reflecting the predominance of positive expectations. Traders should bear this in mind in the medium term.
The market participants ‘ attention Monday was also chained to the weakening of the yuan by more than 1%, and also update the Australian dollar to 3.5 year lows. All these are obvious signs of transition to the global investors from earning assets – protective. Literally, this means that in the event of a further global slowdown and capital outflows from developing countries, stability of the ruble is not expected.
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