The ruble may start the recovery in September
The Russian ruble lost Thursday’s 0.2% against the currency basket. Such dynamics can be considered a success against the background of the collapse of the currency of Argentina at 20% within the day and more than 6% weakening of the Turkish Lira. The USD / RUB pair rose on Thursday by 0.4% to 68.24. However, on Friday morning the rouble wins back these losses, returning to 68.08 (-17 cents to levels of closing of Thursday). EURRUB added on Thursday only 2.5 pennies, and in the morning on Friday reduced by 10 cents, trading at 79.53.
It looks like a pullback after the strong emotional reaction the day before. However, you should pay attention to the declining trading volume is a vivid evidence of profit taking by speculators after strong movement, not confident buying on dips.
In addition, the negative adds, the cautious tone of trading in foreign markets: the markets of China and Japan losing nearly 1% on Friday morning, the Japanese yen (a good barometer of demand for risks) add to the major competitors, reflecting the outflow of funds from risky assets.
By the end of the month, when enhanced traction is to lock in profits from strong movements earlier in the month, we could face a weakening stock indices in the U.S. and Europe, as well as the possible correction of oil after rally 10% over the last two weeks.
As for the scenario for the coming month, the most dramatic will be the default of Argentina and Turkey, as well as the tightening of trade disputes the United States and China. In this case, the ruble and the overall world markets are able to be under serious pressure, and it is difficult to predict what might be the Euro and the dollar against the ruble is much higher than current.
However, more than likely, the ruble will gradually recover after the August shock. He will be able to return to the levels close to 65-66 per dollar and 77 per Euro.