The ruble may stabilize for a while
Rosstat found an unprecedented growth of Russian industry. Donald trump spins new spiral of trade wars with China. Russian financial market is under attack.
Rosstat has dramatically revised data on industrial production in Russia last year. So according to the main statistical body of the country industry in Russia in 2017, has soared by 1% and 2.1%. What is most striking that the data accuracy has coincided with the forecast of economic development which is subordinate to Rosstat. In the manufacturing sector data were revised more than 12 times increase.
In addition, in April 2018, the industrial production grew by 3.9% compared with last year. As usual adjustments in Rosstat explain changes of calculation methods.
Meanwhile, overseas, the US President instructed to prepare a list of Chinese goods in the amount of $ 200 billion for the introduction of additional import duties of 10%. Trade war, which picks America and China may be enough to significantly put pressure on the international financial markets. In the first place and it could hit developing markets, including Russia. Although now without the Russian stock and currency market have not sweet.
Today at auction Moscow stock exchange for one unit of U.S. currency give 64 rubles 5 kopecks, the Euro traded at 74 rubles exactly. The MICEX index dropped to 2195 points, quotes of Brent crude oil rose to almost $ 75 per barrel. Bitcoins according to CoinMarketCap has risen to $ 6,700.
Of course, we warned that the Russian currency will start dropping this summer. However, the predicted decline only in the second half of the summer. However, the current weakening of the ruble is just the preparation before the drop in August. Sale on the Russian market, associated primarily with non-residents of the Russian debt.
Now it’s more emotion. However, the trend in the weakening value of the Russian assets is quite alarming bell. However now there is a tax week, in which exporters change currency earnings into rubles to pay taxes, and it is likely that before the end of the week we will see a sort of stabilization of the ruble. Your forecast for the end of summer we leave unchanged, and we believe that by September the dollar may set new annual highs.
The head of the analytical Department of the company,