The ruble may resume a sharp drop next week

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On Friday, the ruble moderately lower against the currency basket, helped by the resumption of evasion from risks. Bulls on the global markets spooked the news that the White house decided to postpone the issuance of licenses to work with the Chinese Huawei. This step was perceived by investors as yet another escalation of a trade war. The manifestation of negativity is holding back a stable exchange rate of the yuan, the dynamics of which now follow closely all asset classes.
The dollar/ruble closed the day before just above the level of 65 rubles., and is now trying to develop the upside momentum, having reached the region 65,30 RUB, where the local resistance in the face of the 200-day moving average. Inhibits impulses dollar bulls, including in the Forex market, another criticism of three strong national currency. But, of course, the interest in protective assets and the lack of positive signals from the oil market, this is not enough to prevent the weakening of the ruble.
In the short term, the pair is likely to continue to oscillate near the mark of 65 rubles., but if Brent will go from sluggish consolidation to a further decline in the dollar may accelerate the rise, although before the onset of the weekend, trading activity may be somewhat reduced. In any case, downside risks to “Russians” prevail.
Also in the short term, important for domestic assets as a whole will be the decision of Fitch Agency’s rating of Russia. A pleasant surprise from the Agency is able to discard a few closer to the mark of 65 rubles.
Gennady Nikolaev
Academy of management Finance and investment