The ruble may fall after the decision of the fed on rates
The Russian ruble has been gradually coming out from under the hood of the influence of internal factors and falls under the direct rays external. Today begins a two-day meeting of the US Federal reserve, which its Chairman, Jerome Powell will be a difficult task to convince the markets that he will be able to do two opposite things: to support them and to witness their commitment to the monetary policy normalization bets.
With the help of tools it is possible to do is the big question. American experts say that, most likely, the rate will be, as promised, increased, but the accompanying rhetoric is downplayed and particularly focused on the dependence of the fed’s actions, “entering macro data”. You believe in is investors topic.
The situation is aggravated by rampant fall, for the past week, us stock indices. The VIX “rolled over” and now has a tendency to grow in the fall, as it was before, and the growth of the stock market, which may indicate that the largest institutional investors in the United States “look down”. US President trump, who is known to have repeatedly criticised the Federal reserve for “detachment from the needs of the U.S. economy”, can now redouble their pressure on the head of Powell’s.
Negotiations with China for the normalization of the balance of foreign trade, according to recent reports, has again stalled, and this is an additional factor of “bad mood” of the markets. In case no such agreement, according to forecasts by the WTO and the IMF, world trade volumes will fall, which will reduce global growth by as much as 0.5 percentage points by 2020, or about $430 billion in lost GDP worldwide.
The ruble against this background, visibly nervous, completely discontinous factor rate hike by the Bank of Russia last Friday. Before the opening of trading in new York, as of 16:00 Moscow time, the ruble on Masuria is trading in tandem with the dollar already at 66,88, and he had only 12 cents until it reaches its upper boundary of the trading channel, level 67. In tandem with the Euro, the domestic currency also falling to the level of 76,15 ruble, which, in General, consistent with the General trend on the widespread correction of “risk assets”. Gold traded steady just above $1250/oz and we are waiting for the first news from overseas.
“International Financial Center”