The ruble lost external negativity

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The Central event of the day – the fall of us stock indices by 4% and oil 2%. Note that the rouble endured enough of this negativity – after drawdown in the morning, in the afternoon he returned to strengthen. By 16 o’clock, he played almost all the losses last night, the dollar/ruble fell to 66,3, and the Euro/ruble – to 76,7. Note that confident look as the currencies of developing countries and OFZ, the flight from bonds is not observed. This makes us moderately optimistic.
Today the dynamics of the ruble again shows that its correlation with oil has decreased significantly. The main factor influencing the exchange rate of the Russian currency – geopolitical. The key issue of sanctions against Russia and the position of the Central Bank. A firm decision of the Bank of Russia to buy foreign currency in reserves to the Finance Ministry before the end of the year, provided significant support for the ruble. Today the dynamics of the ruble allows to look at the horizon the coming weeks with optimism. The ruble remains the potential to strengthen. The dollar/ruble might fall back to 66, the Euro/ruble – to 76. Unless, of course, in turn we do not expect new surprises in the form of downward correction of the American indexes, or new sanctions against Russia.
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Roman Tkachuk,
Senior analyst,
Alpari