The ruble lacks the support
Russian ruble on Friday continued the recovery position in a basket of currencies, but the farther, the better it is seen that the potential for a technical correction have been exhausted. External environment, meanwhile, remains not in favor of Russia and its currency. The U.S. dollar is worth by mid-day RUB of 61.56 (a-0.7%). The Euro is trading at 75,93 RUB (down 0.6%). Official exchange rates of the CBRF at the weekend and on Monday, April 16, 61,43 make up a RUB for the American currency and 75,75 RUB over the European. Both estimates revised down, 59 and 100 cents respectively.
Oil prices after a pullback Friday morning returned to the positive zone. A barrel of North sea Brent crude costs $72,22 (+0,3%). At the moment the market has factored in the prices of raw materials all the news received during the week, but a strong argument in favor of continuing attempts to grow up is the middle East factor.
The fact that the dollar is still above 61,0 RUB, confirms the likelihood of a new wave of growth 66,50 RUB This scenario will lose relevance, if the pair dollar/ruble will slide to the intermediate support at 60,85 RUB However, the fundamental backdrop still is in favor of dollar “bulls” geopolitical tensions remain high, including around the Syrian issue. There is chance of more stringent package of anti-Russian sanctions by the US and the EU. All of this contributes to return the sympathy to the ruble, although not a major negative factor.
One of the indicators signaling that external risks are weakening, with the Finance Ministry to auction on placement of OFZ on Wednesday. This week, the auction was cancelled due to high market volatility, but the chart in the office for the next week, the auction remains.