The ruble lacks positive signals to growth
At the opening of trading on Thursday, the ruble attempted to rally, but came under pressure in tandem with the dollar, which lately is not valid. The Euro, meanwhile, has gone to two-week highs, which, however, is not surprising given the widespread strengthening of the single currency on hawkish signals from the ECB officials.
“Russian” is clearly not enough neither determination, nor drivers, to return to the track of recovery, even in the face of pressure to feel the dollar in the international arena. Geopolitics moved into the background, but the situation remains tense, including in anticipation of the start of tomorrow’s summit B7, which promises to be challenging – France and Germany have already indicated that they can not sign a joint statement of the summit. Against Russia may sound some negative rhetoric, as German Chancellor Merkel called it impossible to return Moscow to G7.
In the short term, the uncertainty in the dynamics of the “wood” makes the behavior of prices of oil, which fails to develop the strength of the recovery after the recent rebound from the lows a month ago. Despite the reduction of exports from Venezuela, which is a month behind schedule, and the threat of declarations of force majeure in troubled country, the bulls are not in a hurry with the purchases, estimating the probability of the scenario with increased OPEC production+.
While the dollar is losing ground on the international Forex market, the potential decline of our currency is limited. However, the likelihood of significant strengthening is reduced to zero due to the vague dynamics of crude oil, purchases of foreign currency by the Central Bank for the Ministry of Finance, the continuing tensions on the geopolitical front, and potential negativity from the summit B7.
The head of the analytical Department of the company,
“International financial center”