The ruble knocked down the new wave of trade wars

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Thursday, may 31, at the end of the trading session on the Moscow exchange rate of the us dollar calculations “tomorrow” increased by 33 kopecks (+0,53%), to 62.40 Euro and by 60 kopecks (+0,84%), to 72,97 RUB Trading volume in the pair dollar/ruble amounted to $4.1 billion (of 20.58%), and Euro/ruble – 446,4 million euros (-15,32%).
The Bank of Russia since June 1, has set the official US dollar rate to ruble at the level of 62,0188 RUB below the previous close at 57,49 COP. the Official Euro to rouble was fixed at RUB 72,5806 compared to the previous value of the single currency declined by 57,49 COP.
Trading on ruble pairs on Thursday closed higher. Negative impact on the Russian currency had a message on the introduction of import duties on steel (10%) and aluminium (25%) for Canada, Mexico and the EU. Apart from the duties the States have set a condition that if in response to us sanctions will be taken in response, further negotiations on this issue will be impossible.
The ruble lost more points against the single currency than against the us dollar. Pressure on the Euro fell as Giuseppe Conte presented the new government of Italy. The Minister of economy and Finance will be an Economics Professor Giovanni Tria. Eurosceptics Paolo Savona went to the place of the Minister for European Affairs.
To closing of trading session the dollar rose to 62,56 Euro – to 73,03 RUB because of the introduction States duties emerging-market currencies came under pressure. Given the unsustainable growth of oil prices, it will continue on Friday.
During the U.S. session the price of Brent crude oil increased to $79,16 a barrel. The increase in oil prices after the US Department of energy was short-lived. The positive effect of the reduction of oil reserves in the country leveled a new round of trade wars. The Minister of trade United States Wilbur Ross said on Thursday that the Bush administration has decided to introduce from 1 June tariffs, as already mentioned, on steel imports (25%) and aluminium (10%) from the European Union, Canada and Mexico.
According to the energy Ministry, oil reserves in the U.S. last week fell to 3,620 million barrels to 434,512 million barrels (consensus was +450 thousand barrels). Gasoline inventories increased by 534 thousand barrels to 234,431 million barrels (forecast was about 1.5 million barrels), distillate stocks – by 634 thousand barrels to 114,629 million barrels (consensus: -1,2 thousand barrels). The volume of oil production in the U.S. increased by 44 thousand barrels per day, to 10.77 million barrels a day.
Bidding on the two benchmark grades of oil ended mixed. Brent crude oil slightly rose, while WTI fell by 1.75%.
On Friday, June 1, at the auctions in Asia the price of Brent has decreased on 0,46%, to $77,38 per barrel. The increase in stocks of oil and oil production in the United States, as well as the uncertainty about the OPEC’s plans for production will constrain quotes from growth. Friday sees the decline of oil prices around $75,55 per barrel.
The pair dollar/ruble is sideways 22 days. The price to exit the range in the hallway of 61.00 – 63,00 RUB will determine the direction of the pair for one to two weeks.
The single currency could come under pressure if at this meeting, the Spanish Parliament will give a vote of no confidence in the government. For the Euro/ruble trading range for today is 72,90 – 73,85 RUB.
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Vladislav Antonov,
Analyst
Alpari