The ruble is waiting for what will trump
The main theme of the currency markets, anyway, remains the upcoming meeting of Putin with trump in Helsinki on Monday. Today was supposed to be a kind of “day of silence” before the election – unless, of course, this will not prevent the fact that today is Friday the thirteenth.
The ruble continues to trade in a regime of damped oscillations, having chosen a narrow range of 62.27-62,28 per dollar for the first time in a long time gives you the advantage of domestic currency to most other emerging market currencies, including even (at the current historical stage) the Chinese yuan, which, as you know, over the past week several times changed the vector of its course of movement, and this morning on data on almost doubling of the trade surplus for the month of June in the blink of an eye swooped down from 6.66 to 6.70 to the dollar. Definitely, China knows what numbers have recently attracted the attention of Donald trump!
Meanwhile, around the looks really that the domestic currency has stabilized again, and in the absence of preconditions for a new round of sanctions “in July, the snow on the head”, it waits for a short but pleasant period of peace and tranquility. However, such tranquility may be deceptive, given that the agenda of the talks trump and Putin unexpectedly made such a priori “neprikosnovennyi” themes as the fate of the “Nord stream-2” and increasing the NATO budget. This gives us some concern that fateful meeting that could potentially (at least in a not too distant future) at least a little to slightly open the window of the West the life-giving cheap loans and portfolio investment may not open.
However, the ruble pulls himself from the swamp by the hair like Baron Munchausen, visibly improved situation on the debt market, and debt market, in turn, receives energy from the stabilization of the ruble. In fact, the history of improving the prospects of ruble-denominated low-risk instruments, primarily Federal loan bonds, especially given the slow but steady collapse of the Russian issuers of their programs for the Eurobond (the reasons for this are obvious to all) is becoming too tempting a lure for foreign investors, weary of “Narzan” their home near-zero yields to ignore. As has been said, the football championship in this story plays the role of social advertising.
So it is likely a correction in the ruble on Monday, which would be connected with the disappointment of investors results of the meeting of leaders of the United States and Russia, it is not meant to be offensive proportionate and commensurate problems for the Russian bonds.
“International financial center”