The ruble is waiting for a new wave of anti-Russian sanctions

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On foreign stock markets at the end of last year and in the first days 2019го significantly increased the demand for risky assets including oil. It played almost the key role in steady growth of the Russian currency. But today began showing signs of increasing cautiousness of the market participants that played against the ruble.
In the first half of the week the Euro dropped to 76.38 and the dollar – up to 66.67. However, now the single currency manages to regain the position on the background of the return to the Russian market a wide range of investors after the long weekend: EURRUB in the morning on Thursday has risen to 77.23. So, the Euro gains pairs with many currencies, and therefore its growth against the ruble is not particularly surprising. At the same time, quite revealing is stalling the pair USDRUB: despite the weakening of the dollar by 1.2% and increase of oil by 6.2% since the beginning of the week, she is in no hurry to gain speed, staying at 66.85.
Note that the ruble is usually losing ground in early January, but because what is happening now, it can be attributed to seasonality. Anyway, the Russian currency feels much worse than competitors: the Chinese yuan and Mexican peso, which gained more than 1% this week.
Such caution market has a very tangible basis. Right now the attention of us lawmakers distracted by the controversy surrounding the wall on the border with Mexico that has already caused the government shutdown. However – sooner rather than later, this dispute will be resolved, and then a little that will distract parliamentarians from discussing the new wave of anti-Russian sanctions.
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Alexander Kuptsikevich,
Analyst
FxPro