The ruble is unlikely to show strong growth in the next quarter
The Russian currency is continuing to recover following the positive dynamics of foreign markets. Since the second half of last week we see the strengthening of the ruble to the dollar, despite gains on the global currency market. Thus, the course of USDRUB declined Friday to 9 cents to 65.54. EURRUB fell 28 cents to 78.10.
In addition, the ruble managed to repel a significant part of the losses in August-September, although it remained a trend to weaken. If we consider the long-term charts, the Euro continues to rise against the ruble for the past 6 consecutive quarters, and the dollar turned to growth only in the last six months, after 4 quarters of “confusion” in the field 56-60.
Despite the rapid strengthening of the Russian currency in the second half of September, there are more chances that the trend is weakening will prevail.
Based on the newly published manufacturing PMI for Russia, activity in the manufacturing sector has moved away from recessionary levels, however, rose only to 50. This indicator is a good leading indicator, and the current signal should be considered as a balancing of the Russian economy between growth and decline.
In these circumstances, it is hardly necessary to count on growth, as the contrast of the US economy and Europe is growing at a rate above trend, and household spending increased vigorously, against stagnation in Russia.
Also note that traditionally, at the end of the year, rising public spending. This, in turn, increases the pressure on the ruble. Often, in the IV quarter of the Russian currency actively losing ground, partially restoring them in the first quarter of next year.