The ruble is unlikely to exceed 69 per dollar before the end of the year

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To predict the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar in real terms – a thankless task. It is influenced by three factors: the escalation of the trade conflict the United States and China, the price of oil and the General economic situation in Russia and in the world. The first factor is the most unpredictable.
So, in the beginning of this week, amid pending sanctions to a complete ban of trade with Huawei, the markets rose slightly. The growth was supported by trump, saying the real threat of economic recession does not exist and all investors ‘ fears are unfounded. But today the situation has changed amid accusations of violating the country’s sovereignty and borders of the national interest of Washington towards China due to the expected supply of F-16V to Taiwan.
Due to the escalation of the conflict the US and China the demand for oil is decreasing. OPEC has adjusted the forecast of consumption of raw materials to the downside. Now the price of black gold has stabilized a bit — 60.81 USD per barrel.
It is likely to say that existing risks were already reflected in a significant weakening of the ruble against the dollar. Thus, the course in the near future and before the end of the year is unlikely to exceed 69 rubles per dollar. The increase in oil prices and decrease in degree of conflict between the US and China could lead to the strengthening of the ruble to the level already achieved this year borders 62-63 rubles per dollar.
Further strengthening of the ruble in Russia is unlikely to be useful already for the Russian budget.
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Vladimir Zotov
Operating officer of the Treasury,
Ural Bank for reconstruction and development (UBRD):