The ruble is unlikely to change the dynamics in the next few days
Tuesday, may 7, the ruble is fundamentally nothing has changed. By the close of trading, the U.S. dollar calculations “tomorrow” rose again, this time by 12 kopecks (+0,19%), to 65,35 rubles, and Euro rose against the ruble less, only 8 kopecks (+0,1%), to RUB 73,14 Before the long weekend traders took profits and shifted into foreign currency.
The uncertainty of future negotiations between the U.S. and China exerts negative pressure on global markets. However, this morning in China statistics released by export, import and trade balance for April. As is often the case, Chinese statistics broke with the international consensus of analysts.
The Chinese exports was worse than expected and declined by 2.7%, although the market had expected a decline of only 2.3%. But China’s import of raw materials, technologies and goods in April increased by 4%, although analysts had predicted a reduction of imports to China for about the same amount. Most likely, the “celestial Empire” carries out replacement of the supply of goods and raw materials from the United States and possibly from Western countries supplies from Russia and other emerging countries. At least, according to statistics from Chinese customs, trade turnover between China and Russia in April, good enough increased by 5.8%, to $33,17 billion.
The price of Brent oil on the ICE on 7 may fell by 2.7%, to $69,3 per barrel, having broken down the important support at $70. The oil market is influenced by conflicting sentiments: on the one hand, fears of slowing Chinese growth and global demand for oil, on the other hand, the toughening of anti-Iranian oil embargo. However, this morning the price of Brent crude began to grow again and adds to 0.73%.
At the opening of trading today, the ruble is likely to weaken again. We maintain our forecasts for the pair dollar/ruble on the level 65-66 RUB and EUR/RUB – 72,6-73,8 RUB.
Deputy head of information-analytical center,