The ruble is under pressure, the dollar is rising at 0.38%
Wednesday, February 6, at the end of the trading session on the Moscow exchange rate of the us dollar calculations “tomorrow” increased by 25 kopecks (+0,38%), to 65,87 Euro – 2 kopecks (+0,03%), to RUB of 74.90
The ruble remained relatively stable against foreign currencies despite yesterday’s weakening, which was caused by a General strengthening U.S. dollar on global currency markets and higher yields on 10-year U.S. government bonds.
In the U.S. session the ruble from falling kept the oil market. Oil to imitate, as a report from the US Department of energy reflected the increase in stocks less than the market expected.
Crude oil inventories in the U.S. last week rose by 1,263 million to 447,207 million barrels (consensus was +2.5 million barrels). Gasoline inventories increased by 513 thousand barrels (consensus +1.5 mln barrels), to 257,893 million barrels. Distillate stocks fell by 2,257 million (forecast of -2.0 million), up to 139,013 million barrels. Oil production remained at the level of 11.9 million barrels per day.
Thursday, February 7, at sites in Asia, oil is traded in a small minus. On the spot market for $1 give 65,74 RUB / 1 Euro RUB 74,60 Trading on the Moscow exchange may open with a decline on ruble pairs.
Because of the long upward correction in six days the scales are beginning to lean toward buyers. There are some buyers ‘ attempts to change the “bearish” trend. I think while this is very difficult to do, as professional market participants (legal entities), for this correction (from 31 January) futures U.S. dollar increased short positions by 17.6% to 1 341 819 contracts, while long positions recorded a decrease of 6.4%, up to 680 616 contracts. The number of short positions exceeds long 2 times. Professionals the rise of the quotes used to build short positions on the dollar.
Today at the global market correction is expected in dollar, so a pair dollar/ruble is expected to continue the downward movement. Need to see how the market opens and will be traded in the first three hours. If the positive dynamics of ruble will continue, it is likely to last until the close of the trading session. Expect dollar depreciation to the level 65,66 RUB and the Euro could grow to 75,05 RUB.
Analyst of information and analytical center,