The ruble is under pressure from falling oil prices, but is waiting for the placement of OFZ

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On Tuesday, April 3, at the end of the trading session on the Moscow exchange rate of the us dollar calculations “tomorrow” increased by 8 kopecks (+0,15%), 57,57 to Euro decreased by 29 kopecks (-0,11%), to 70.47 RUB Trading volume in the pair dollar/ruble amounted to $2.6 billion (44,44%), and Euro/ruble – 215,6 million euros (+35,43%).
The Central Bank of Russia from April 4, set the official rate of the US dollar against the ruble at the level of 57,5375 RUB. that above of the previous day by 25.25 COP. the Official Euro to rouble was fixed at RUB 70,9207 compared to the previous value rate increased by 31,69 COP.
Trading on ruble pairs were mixed. The ruble rose against the single currency and depreciated against the U.S. dollar. The dollar recovered to 57,70 Euro fell to 70,59 RUB the divergence of the unidirectional pairs are induced by the Euro on the background of General strengthening of the dollar on the Forex market.
The strengthening of the U.S. dollar contributed to the growth yield of ten-year us bonds, reducing the protective assets and increased stock market indices. Investors hope that the US and China will resolve existing problems with the trade deficit through negotiation.
On Wednesday, the Russian Finance Ministry will hold the first auction on placement of Federal loan bonds with indexed value and a maturity date of February 2, 2028 in the amount of 20,036 billion rubles at par value (20,000,000 shares). If the oil is not getting cheaper, the ruble exchange rate comments positively on the results of the auctions of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
Wednesday, April 4, at the auctions in Asia a barrel of Brent has fallen in price on 0,41%, to $67,85. The technical picture indicates a decrease in quotations to $66,50. In this regard, I continue to consider the weakening of the ruble against the us dollar to 57,90 RUB per U.S. dollar and the European currency up to RUB over the 71,13 Euro. The pair dollar/ruble is in a sideways trend since March 19, today its boundaries narrowed to 57,09-57,80 RUB With a further fall in oil prices a possible test of the upper end of the range.
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Vladislav Antonov,
Analyst
Alpari