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The ruble is developing upside movement on Thursday, continuing the retreat from the more than 1-mascninenbau reached yesterday. The combination of rising oil prices and dollar weakness plays into the hands of the Russian currency, which is waiting for additional support from the future tax period.
The dollar/ruble intensified in the mainstream range, going beyond which is not expected until OPEC meeting+ in Vienna on 22-23 June. In the meantime, the pressure on the quotes of black gold has weakened, largely thanks to yesterday’s positive report from the US Department of energy that supports the recovery of “Russians”.
The U.S. currency fell victim to profit-taking after the rate hike and hawkish rhetoric of the fed, which was priced in and caused sales on facts. Today the pressure on the dollar intensified, which is reflected in the dynamics of the ruble, offsetting the weak results of yesterday’s auction the Ministry of Finance, which again failed to fully accommodate the proposed volume of OFZ.
In the short term should pay attention to the behavior of the Euro/dollar, which has fallen for the second day in a row. In the afternoon, widespread adjustments in the dynamics of the single currency will make the outcome of the ECB meeting, which is expected to announce the provisional date of completion of the asset purchase program. Here, as in the case of the dollar, does not exclude profit-taking. In this scenario, the ruble will accelerate the rise in tandem with the Euro. The broader picture will depend on moods in the raw materials segment, where price growth potential is limited, and hence from the ruble of the great exploits should not be expected.
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Roman Blinov,
The head of the analytical Department of the company,
“International financial center”