The ruble is stable, no matter what

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The ruble is stable, no matter what. The US dollar on Thursday afternoon is 66,40. (+0,12%). Euro retreats 0.31% and is estimated at RUB 75,81 rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on Friday, November 9, are 66,21 RUB/USD (+12 cents) and 75,67 RUB/EUR (-1 kopek).
The commodity market looks unstable. In view of the accumulated oversold investors are taking advantage of the news lull to adjust positions. This explains, perhaps, the new wave of local purchases of oil. A barrel of Brent is growing now at 1% and costs $72,77, synchronously expensive and the barrel of WTI.
However, all currently available information is only a “bear” character from the increase of oil reserves in the United States until the growth of load of the refinery and the volume of commodity production. This means that later the market is able to quickly return to sales.
Given the emergence in recent days much news one way or another connected with the actions of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, is worth looking at them in more detail. First, the intervention of the Ministry of Finance, i.e. the currency, announced on the eve of the start from today and work until 6 December. Plans to buy the currency at 25 billion rubles. a day has excited observers, but left untouched stock quotes for a simple reason: the Ministry of Finance buys foreign currency in the market directly, although it has the opportunity, and uses as an agent of the Central Bank.
Practically, this means that directly no one “spook” the market intervention and the desire to buy a large amount of dollars will not, but indirect influence is still present. It lies in the moral pressure on the market, because if currency purchases started now, it may be that the Finance Ministry does not wait for a dollar cheaper.
Second, the results of yesterday’s auctions on placement of OFZ. The Finance Ministry managed to sell off half of one and part of another issue, but to draw the entire desired volume of RUB 20 billion, the Agency was unable. The reason is simple: there is no clear information on the tightening of anti-Russian sanctions, the level of risk is too high. The Ministry of Finance, in turn, need to raise capital, so he comes back with new proposals. Not very clear, why not place a “short” releases, because the interest is a little higher. Most likely, the auctions for next week will be about the same as now, result.
The U.S. dollar is staying within the marks 66,20-of 66.65 RUB, a new resistance is in the area 66,45/66,50. Remembering how difficult the U.S. currency breaks through of 66.00, it can be expected that a new attack will not be quick. The Euro will maintain its position in the range 75,45-75,95 RUB.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari