The ruble is recovering, monetary policy in the spotlight
The ruble was trading slightly higher against the dollar and retreating in tandem with Euro on Wednesday. Trading activity is limited in anticipation of a risk event is the fed decision on monetary policy, where the main interest will represent the forecasts of the regulator of the rates and the economy. The results of the meeting, our currency will play already on Thursday, and today the pair dollar/ruble can maintain relative stability.
The Russian currency moved to recovery yesterday, with the support of the oil market, where prices jumped by 2%, reflecting the escalation of geopolitical tensions around Iraq. The prices for oil remain at high levels, and overall assets of the commodity segment is gradually recovering from the recent pressure that has a positive impact on the behaviour of ruble assets and our currency.
In the second half of the week the ruble will be traded in the context of monetary policy. Today the fed will raise rates, but Powell can give the markets a “hawkish” surprise, if you give even the slightest hint at the possibility of quadruple rate hike this year. This script will return the risky assets in the regime of sales and will lead to widespread buying of the dollar, which will also affect the exchange rate.
Friday will be a meeting of the Bank of Russia, which is expected to cut rates by 0.25%. But there is a possibility of decrease from 0.5% in this case, the pressure on the Russian currency will only intensify against the backdrop of expanding differential in rates. To limit the potential negative tax able period, peaking for next week.
The expert of the company,
“International financial center”