The ruble is ready to strengthen despite the negative external background

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The ruble has strengthened a little at the opening of 66.65 rubles per dollar to 66,39/$, and, in General, he is surprisingly manages to successfully resist the psychological pressure from the currency of the Central Bank, which was renewed according to the budget rule on January 15. Strengthening is ahead of the balance of the current account in the Eurozone data on industrial production in the United States. Oil very slowly, continuing to play a significant, 2.7 million barrels, the inventory reduction in the United States, published on Wednesday, the US Department of energy. Dramatically gaining momentum in December, “bearish” trend in the “black gold” at the moment, completely overcome.
On Thursday, OPEC released a report stating that the growth of oil production in Russia in 2019 will be 140 thousand barrels per day – to 11.49 million barrels.
Not counting the statistics for the current account in the Eurozone, data on industrial production in the US in December and consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan, today no important macroeconomic publications. While standing in the schedule of anticipated releases, but have not been confirmed by the publication on GDP and the trade balance of the Russian Federation. Latest publication would be particularly interesting to compare with previous data that made a lot of noise. In January to November 2018, increasing the surplus in the trade balance of Russia was 65.2% compared to the same period of 2017 to $191,4 billion thus following the results of the year have a chance to beat the 2011 record of $198 billion – as they say, so let’s see!
Actually, technically, the ruble has appreciated too fast, completely discontinous fears on arrival on the currency auction of the Central Bank with its more than 15 billion daily volume of ruble interventions. Apparently, this still have to remember. Level 66,40 rubles per dollar looks technically insurmountable Rubicon for the ruble. Therefore, the upper limit formed after the January holidays channel – mark 67,20 with high probability will be for the domestic currency at next week’s new level of attraction.
A little frustrating gold, which seems to be completely throws off from the accounts of the adverse scenario of development of political and inter-party squabbles in the United States. Reporting reporting (in the US now financial releases from public companies are in the climax phase), and the General market risk after all, nobody has canceled! As of 13:45 GMT, the precious metal is adjusted to be opened in Asia at $6 to $1284 per Troy ounce, remaining, however, near its two-month level of technical support.
Vladimir Rojankovski,
“International Financial Center”