The ruble is on the verge of collapse, the new sanctions package is already in the U.S. Congress
Key provisions in the updated bill DASKA (Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act of 2019 “On the protection of U.S. security from the aggression of the Kremlin”) was known in mid-February. The document, in particular, suggests a ban on transaction with the new sovereign of Russia and of sanctions for investments in LNG projects, so the stock market actually did not react to this news.
Although the history of sovereign debt, if it becomes a reality – this is a very serious risk for the bond market and for the ruble. If the Central Bank does not intervene in the trades, and the regulator in Russia targets inflation, not exchange rate, the ruble may fall 10-15% from current levels. In other words, the pair dollar/ruble may be within the boundaries 72-76 RUB, EUR/RUB – in the corridor 82-86 RUB Gas sanctions is unlikely to seriously affect the business of Russian companies, however, in the case of the bill of the action “Gazprom” and “NOVATEK” will be under pressure.
In fact, sanctions are, of course, also unfair competition. The dream of Americans is to throw “Gazprom” to the European market and replace it with gas for its LNG. The Americans threaten to punish the buyers of Russian weapons, which is usually cheaper than the counterparts of their production. The story of the “Sukhoi Superjet 100” is also a vivid example in this regard.
You can also recall the pressure on Turkey because of the s-400. In principle, they thought that if you partially close the market of loans to Gazprom, Rosneft, etc., then this will create problems for these companies, and the failure of supply will allow to represent Russia as an unreliable supplier. But they were wrong: there is a serious revenue of these companies, and, of course, internal funding sources, primarily state-owned banks.
Director of information-analytical center,